This paints a pretty dramatic picture of the potential economic fallout from large-scale tariffs—especially when it comes to something as symbolic and essential as the iPhone.
Here’s a breakdown of the key points and implications:
💰 $3,500 iPhones?
- Dan Ives from Wedbush lays out a harsh reality: if Apple were to move significant manufacturing to the U.S., it’s not just a matter of packing up and relocating.
- Replicating the entire supply chain—everything from microchips to final assembly—would be enormously expensive and time-consuming.
- Even a 10% shift in production could cost $30 billion and take three years. A full shift could see iPhone prices triple to around $3,500.
🔧 Why Asia Still Rules Manufacturing
- Asia has spent decades building a deep, specialized ecosystem for electronics manufacturing.
- Taiwan: advanced chipmaking (TSMC).
- South Korea: OLED and display tech (Samsung, LG).
- China: sheer scale and efficiency in final assembly (Foxconn, Pegatron).
The U.S. simply doesn’t have that manufacturing density, labor force expertise, or cost efficiency—at least not yet.
📉 Apple’s Stock and Supply Chain Risks
- Apple shares dropping ~25% since Trump’s inauguration is a big red flag for investors.
- Apple is especially exposed because 90% of iPhones are assembled in China, and their chips, displays, and other components rely heavily on Taiwan, Korea, and China.
📈 Inevitable Price Hikes?
- Even if Apple doesn’t move production to the U.S., tariffs could still push iPhone prices up 30–43%, depending on how much cost is passed to consumers.
- That’s a $1,000 iPhone jumping to $1,300–$1,430 without moving a single plant.
🌍 Diversification Attempts
- Apple is already trying to shift to India and Brazil:
- India has a 26% tariff burden.
- Brazil’s is lower at 10%, but has limited manufacturing capacity.
- Still, these shifts are slow and incremental—not enough to fully replace Chinese capacity in the short term.
🧠 Takeaway
Trump’s tariffs may be intended to bring jobs home, but tech manufacturing isn’t something that can just be reshored with the flip of a switch. The infrastructure, scale, and supply networks in Asia are decades in the making. Tariffs could end up making American consumers—and companies like Apple—pay the price, literally.
Want to dive deeper into how Apple’s manufacturing decisions have evolved since then, or how feasible domestic chip manufacturing is becoming (like with Intel and TSMC building fabs in Arizona)?